WARMA tells Zambians to plan for weaker river flows and less groundwater recharge in the 2026/27 rains

The Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) has advised water users to prepare for reduced river inflows and limited recharge of groundwater in the coming rainy season. Its latest hydrological bulletin says the Kafue, Southern Zambezi and Southern Luangwa catchments will receive less water in the 2026/27 season than they normally do, and that Lake Kariba is likely to get below-average inflows. The bulletin blames rising temperatures, which increase evaporation and make water levels fall faster. The Zambia Meteorological Department forecasts a strong north-south contrast for 2026/27, with above-normal rainfall expected in the Tanganyika, Chambeshi and Luapula catchments and in Northern Luangwa. The warning lands a week after the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) cut the water allocated for power generation at Kariba from 36 billion cubic metres in 2026 to 23 billion cubic metres in 2027. The 2027 allocation is shared equally between ZESCO and the Zimbabwe Power Company, at 11.5 billion cubic metres each, down from 18 billion each this year. The ZRA said it based the cut on forecasts of a strong El Niño and below-normal rainfall, drawing on the regional climate outlook forum held in Namibia in August. That forum expects below-normal rain from October 2026 to March 2027. On 14 October the lake stood at 480.65 metres above sea level, holding 23.77 billion cubic metres of usable water, or 36.68 percent of live storage. A year earlier it held 8.25 billion cubic metres, or 12.75 percent. The ZRA projects that usable water will fall to 5.83 billion cubic metres, about 9 percent of live storage, by 31 December 2027. ZRA acting chief executive Peter Kapinga said, "The authority recognises the importance of Lake Kariba in so far as electricity supply and economic activity in both Contracting States are concerned." Former Energy Minister Yamfwa Mukanga said on 21 October that Zambia should brace for possible loadshedding because of the smaller allocation, and urged the gov