Spending up 7%, revenue up 6%, borrowing up 30%: the 2027 budget gap, in numbers

Zambia's government plans to spend more next year than it earns, and to borrow more to cover the difference. The Ministry of Finance gave the figures on Monday at public hearings ahead of the official budget presentation. Total spending in 2027 is projected at K271.9 billion (about $13.8 billion), roughly 7% higher than this year. Against the K253.1 billion budgeted for 2026, that is K18.8 billion more. Revenue is not keeping pace. Government expects to collect about 6% more, reaching K218.6 billion. That leaves a gap of about K53.3 billion between what the state will spend and what it will collect. Borrowing is meant to fill most of that gap. The ministry projects K44.9 billion next year, with K37.3 billion raised at home and K7.7 billion from outside. This year's borrowing is K34.5 billion. That is an increase of about K10.4 billion, or roughly 30%, while spending rises 7%. ## The numbers at a glance | Item | 2026 | 2027 (projected) | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Total spending | K253.1 billion (budgeted) | K271.9 billion | About +7% | | Revenue | Not stated | K218.6 billion | About +6% | | Gap between spending and revenue | Not stated | About K53.3 billion | n/a | | Total borrowing | K34.5 billion | K44.9 billion | About +30% | | Of which domestic | Not stated | K37.3 billion | n/a | | Of which external | Not stated | K7.7 billion | n/a | | Economic growth | 6.4% promised, 5.3% now expected | Not stated | 1.1 points below promise | ## The growth promise was missed The ministry now expects the economy to grow 5.3% this year. When the 2026 budget was presented a year ago, the target was 6.4%. The shortfall matters because spending and borrowing plans are built on growth forecasts. If the economy grows slower than promised, tax collection suffers and the debt becomes harder to carry. The 2027 plan again leans heavily on copper. The ministry expects output to reach 1.08 million metric tons in 2027, then 1.25 million in 2028 and 1.40 million in 2029. The recor