The biggest petrol rise in at least 20 months: K25.29 to K31.46 after six months of held-down prices

Fuel has become much more expensive in Zambia. New pump prices took effect on 1 October after the Energy Regulation Board (ERB), the regulator that sets pump prices each month, announced them on 30 September. Petrol and diesel are each up by about 24 percent in one month. ## What the tax relief was This is not only about oil and the exchange rate. Fuel carries two government taxes on every litre: excise duty and VAT. For six months, from April to September, the government stopped charging both. That kept pump prices artificially low, below what costs and taxes would normally have produced. The ERB says the relief, together with its own price-smoothing measures, also helped keep Zambia's fuel among the cheapest in southern and eastern Africa. ## Why the timing matters The relief covered the August general election. That timing matters: with fuel kept cheap through the campaign, it was less likely to become a reason to vote against the ruling UPND. The government's stated reason for ending the relief is that the Treasury could no longer afford it. Now that the election is over, the relief has ended and prices have moved back to the level that costs and taxes would normally produce. From here, they will follow the ERB's monthly reviews as normal. ## VAT is still to come Fuel prices today still have no VAT in them. It is due back on 1 December at 16 percent, and only excise duty has returned so far. When VAT comes back, it is expected to be added to the pump price, which on today's prices would take petrol to about K36.50 and diesel to about K38.60 a litre, unless oil prices or the kwacha ease. That estimate is the Pulse's own, not an official figure. ## What the government says The ERB and the government point to three causes: the end of the tax relief, higher world oil prices, and a weaker kwacha. The increase comes as President Hakainde Hichilema, who has just returned from a working visit to the United Arab Emirates, says Zambia should find a way to make fue