Zambia's Vote Count Passes Halfway — But the Real Story Is What's Happening Around It

It's day four since Zambians went to vote, and the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has now announced results from 135 out of 226 constituencies — just past halfway. President Hakainde Hichilema is well ahead in total votes, but when you look at how many constituencies each man has actually won, it's almost neck and neck. The count itself is proceeding normally. What's not normal is what's happening alongside it: over the weekend, UPND and the opposition started accusing each other of using armed men — and that's the part of this story that's escalating fastest, while the actual election process keeps moving in the background. ## The numbers so far Here's where things stand, with 91 constituencies still to come: | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Constituencies won | |---|---|---|---|---| | Hakainde Hichilema | UPND | 1,546,140 | 58.9% | 69 | | Brian Mundubile | NRPUP | 1,030,662 | 39.3% | 66 | | Harry Kalaba | CF | 11,711 | — | — | | Kelvin Fube Bwalya | ZMP | 11,062 | — | — | | Fred M'membe | SP | 6,905 | — | — | To avoid a runoff, a candidate needs more than 50% of the vote nationally. HH is above that line right now — but most of that lead is coming from one province. In Southern Province, he's beating Mundubile almost 29 to 1 (597,665 votes to just 20,644, with 24 of 29 constituencies counted). Take that province out, and the race looks completely different: Mundubile is ahead on the Copperbelt, and in Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces, while HH's other strong areas are North-Western and Western. That's why the seat count — 69 to 66 — is so much closer than the vote percentages suggest. With 91 constituencies still left, including 20 on the Copperbelt and 15 in Western Province, neither the final margin nor the runoff question is settled yet. ## A brief pause, already sorted Counting was paused nationwide for a few hours on Friday after ECZ chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis cited reports of violence and stolen ballots at some counting c